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Sisyphus Happy?
We review the latest instalment of the “debt ceiling drama”, the spread of the “delta variant” and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s new forward guidance.
Consistency Check
ECB to make its forward guidance consistent with the strategy review this Thursday
A late Italian Strike?
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) strategy review, seemingly aligning its official stance with Mario Draghi’s public views at the end of his tenure, provides the intellectual underpinning for prolong ...
Crypto Challenge
Key data releases last week did not move the bond market: there is still too much “noise”, particularly in the US because of the magnitude of the fiscal push.
Where’s the BIF?
Joe Biden’s bi-partisan compromise last week on the infrastructure package (BIF) was welcome by the market but it’s still a winding road through Congress. At the same time, Biden continues to hold fa ...
Aligning Incentives
More than the message from the “median Fed forecaster” we focus on the polarization within the FOMC. We remain in the “it’s a transitory” camp on inflation, but we reiterate our view that US real rat ...
The west is (trying to be) back
The conclusions of the G7 summit, albeit not immediately actionable, can be read as a “West is back” manifesto.
Still no smoking gun
More signals of supply-side tension in the US have emerged with the release of the labor market data for May. We focus on the strong rebound in the relative pay of low-skilled workers in the hospital ...
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